Northeast Florida Real Estate Market Update: March 2026

Northeast Florida's housing market is showing real spring momentum in 2026. March marked the second straight month of rising prices, with closed sales jumping 22.6% and new listings up 14.6% across the six-county region. Here is the full picture, county by county.

March 2, 2026 | Market Reports

Spring is historically the hottest season for real estate in Northeast Florida — and 2026 is shaping up to be no exception. Here’s a look at what’s happening across Duval, St. Johns, Clay, and Nassau counties as we head into March.

Mortgage Rates: The Big Story Right Now

After two years stuck in the 7s, mortgage rates are finally moving in the right direction. The 30-year fixed rate has broken below 7% and analysts are pointing to a potential push into the high 5s by mid-2026 if economic conditions hold. That shift is meaningful for buyers.

On a $400,000 home, the difference between a 7.25% rate and a 6.5% rate is roughly $200/month. That extra purchasing power is bringing buyers off the sidelines who have been waiting for over a year. Sellers who’ve had listings sitting should take note — the window to attract rate-sensitive buyers is opening.

Inventory: More Choices Than 2023-2024, But Not Oversupplied

Northeast Florida inventory has risen compared to the ultra-tight 2021-2023 market, but it remains well below pre-pandemic norms:

St. Johns County: Inventory is up about 18% year-over-year, but still sits at roughly 2.5 months of supply. Anything under 4 months is a seller’s market. St. Johns remains firmly in seller territory.
Duval County: Supply has climbed closer to 3.5-4 months — approaching a balanced market. Well-priced homes move. Overpriced listings sit for 45+ days.
Clay County: Similar to Duval. New construction in Oakleaf and surrounding areas is creating more competition for resale sellers in the $300K-$400K range.
Nassau County: Fernandina Beach and Yulee continue to see steady demand, especially from buyers priced out of St. Johns County.

Prices: Stable with Selective Growth

Northeast Florida home values are holding firm heading into spring:

St. Johns County median price: ~$465,000 (up ~3% year-over-year)
Duval County median price: ~$308,000 (flat to slightly up)
Clay County median price: ~$330,000 (up ~2% year-over-year)
Ponte Vedra / Nocatee premium tier: $450K-$650K range seeing strongest activity, especially newer construction

Price appreciation has moderated from the 15-20% annual gains of 2021-2022, but values have not declined. The market correction was a slowdown in appreciation, not a price rollback.

What Buyers Should Know Right Now

Act on the rate window: If rates are moving toward the 6s, waiting for the 5s could mean competing with a wave of sidelined buyers. The best time to buy is before everyone else realizes conditions have improved.
Negotiation room exists in Duval: Unlike the zero-concession environment of 2022, sellers in Duval County are more open to closing cost credits and rate buydowns. Ask.
St. Johns County moves fast: Homes under $450K with good schools still receive multiple offers. Pre-approval and quick decisions are essential.

What Sellers Should Know Right Now

Spring is your moment: March through May is peak buying season. Listing now puts you in front of motivated buyers with the largest pool of competition.
Price it right from day one: Overpriced listings are accumulating days on market. A home that sits 45+ days loses negotiating power. First two weeks are everything.
Falling rates help you too: Improved affordability expands the buyer pool for your home. More qualified buyers = stronger offers.

Forecast: Spring 2026

If rates continue trending down and inventory remains manageable, we expect a competitive spring market — particularly in the $350K-$500K range across St. Johns and southern Duval. The Northeast Florida job market remains strong, relocation demand from high-tax states continues, and no major inventory correction is on the horizon.

Bottom line: this is an active, functional market — not the frenzy of 2022, but not the buyer’s market many predicted. Strategic buyers and sellers are winning. Search current listings to see what’s available in your price range, or connect with our team for a personalized market analysis.

Common Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

The median single-family home price in Northeast Florida reached $395,000 in March 2026, up 4.2 percent year over year and up 1.5 percent from February. This marked the second consecutive month of rising prices, signaling real spring momentum in the six-county region. Northeast Florida includes Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, Putnam, and St. Johns counties, with St. Johns County commanding the highest median prices and Duval County offering the broadest range of price points.

Median home prices vary substantially across Northeast Florida counties as of March 2026. St. Johns County leads at $550,000 (up 1.2 percent year over year). Nassau County followed at $459,500 (up 5.3 percent). Clay County's median was $364,990 (up 4.3 percent). Baker County came in at $355,000 (up 41.8 percent, though on a small sample size). Duval County, the largest by transaction volume, was $335,000 (up 2.8 percent). Each county's market reflects different buyer preferences, school district draws, and housing stock characteristics.

Northeast Florida is in balanced market territory as of March 2026. Months of supply across major counties is in the 3.5 to 3.9 month range: Duval at 3.5 months, Clay at 3.7 months, and St. Johns at 3.9 months. This represents a meaningful shift from the strong seller's market of the pandemic era. Buyers have more inventory to choose from and more negotiating leverage, while well-priced and well-presented homes are still selling within reasonable timeframes. New listings rose 14.6 percent year over year in March, which continues to expand buyer options.

Several factors are supporting rising Northeast Florida home prices in 2026. Closed sales jumped 22.6 percent year over year in March, indicating renewed buyer demand after years of rate-driven hesitation. Continued population growth into the region, strong job market dynamics in Jacksonville, top-rated schools in St. Johns County, and steady relocation from higher-cost states all support sustained demand. New listings rose 14.6 percent, expanding inventory but not fast enough to outpace demand. The combination of growing demand and modest inventory growth has pushed prices higher month-over-month.

The right Northeast Florida county depends on buyer priorities. St. Johns County (median $550,000) is the choice for top-rated schools and is consistently ranked Florida's best school district, with longer commutes from Jacksonville as a trade-off. Duval County (median $335,000) offers the broadest range of price points, neighborhoods, and the closest access to Jacksonville's job market. Clay County (median $364,990) provides strong family-friendly value with established communities and competitive prices. Nassau County (median $459,500) offers coastal living and the Amelia Island lifestyle. Each county is appreciating in 2026, but at different rates and price points.

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